Forschungsprojekt ::

SEHAG Subproject Z – Coordination of the research unit - Phase II

Dieses Projekt ist Teil des Forschungsprojektes Research Unit SEHAG - Sensitivity of high Alpine geosystems to climate change since 1850 (SEHAG) - Phase II

Projektbeschreibung

The research unit investigates the influence of past and ongoing climate change on the activity of and interactions between different processes in alpine geosystems since the Little Ice Age (LIA). We differentiate the investigation of changes into four time slices: Time Slice I (1850-1920), Time Slice II (1920-1980), Time Slice III (1980-present/end of project phase I) and the future Time Slice IV (present-2050). The latter represents the main, though not the exclusive, focus of the second project phase.
Based on the central research hypothesis that the effects of climatic changes since 1850 are already detectable in reactions of the alpine geosystem, the research unit investigates these systems exemplarily in three catchments south and north of the main Alpine ridge, which were selected due to extensive preliminary work, high morphodynamics with low anthropogenic influence and good data situation.
The investigations in the first project phase focused on the changes in the geosystems and their causes from 1850 until today and will be continued in the second application phase (project years 4-6) to further improve the data situation. The focus of the work in the second phase is on the model-based analysis of the future development of the geosystems until 2050, based on the data of the dynamically downscaled climate model projections and the models for subsystems in complex alpine catchments calibrated in the first project phase. The project period of three decades in the second project phase was chosen because the expected forecast uncertainties (climate scenarios) and the internal variabilities of the processes in the geosystems are still low, but irreversible changes that have already begun and are continuing, e.g. in the cryosphere, will have consequences especially in the forecast period.
The research unit's investigations are oriented towards three main research questions:
I. Is it possible to identify significant responses in alpine geosystems in the context of climate change, also taking into account spatial and temporal uncertainties in data and model analyses?
II. How do climatically induced changes in system compartments influence geosystem properties in terms of process dynamics? Do interactions amplify or weaken the effects of climate change?
III. How do changes in processes and process interactions propagate through the system (connectivity, sediment delivery)? Will there be increasing or decreasing morphodynamics?
The complex interplay of atmospheric forcing, hydro- and cryospheric changes and the determination of their consequences for different geomorphological processes in alpine geosystems requires a concerted approach, resulting in a multidisciplinary structure of the research unit.